As winter rolls in and the bird flu crisis deepens, Michael Barker analyses the current mood of the industry and what can be done to fight back
The UK poultry industry, it’s no exaggeration to say, is facing an existential threat. The worst outbreak of avian flu (AI) ever seen, coming at a time of swingeing production cost increases and tight margins, is pushing producers to the limits of their endurance as calls grow for more support to prevent a decimation of the sector.
The figures make grim reading. As of 23 November, there had been 121 confirmed cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 in England since 1 October alone, with 255 since the outbreak started in October 2021. So far, the outbreak has led to the death of 3.8m birds in the UK – and 97m globally – with the government imposing mandatory housing for all poultry in England on 7 November in an effort to stem the wave.
On 28 October the government said it was amending the existing bird flu compensation scheme to allow payments to be paid to farmers from the outset of planned culling rather than the end, a move it said would provide swifter payments to help stem cash flow pressures and give earlier certainty about entitlement to compensation. That was a welcome development, but producers say it does not go far enough, calling for the policy to be brought into line with other animal species and payments for the full value of all stock on farms. The issue has been put into sharper focus given reports of delays as Defra and the Animal & Plant Health Agency (APHA) struggle under the caseload of visiting infected farms.
The situation is particularly precarious given the sudden increase in infections in wild birds, which Professor Ian Brown, head of virology at APHA, has described as a serious concern. It comes as the problem spreads across the Atlantic to North America, underlining the fact that this is far from a British issue.
‘A complete and utter disaster’
It’s all putting producers under intense pressure, and the crisis is unrecognisable even from a few months ago. “It’s a completely different scenario to last winter,” says Mark Gorton, managing director at Traditional Norfolk Poultry, who describes the situation as “a nightmare”. “There’s no comparison at all. We as a business have never had AI before this year and we all know how many cases there are now. It goes without saying that it’s a complete and utter disaster this year.”
Gorton says his business has been affected on multiple farms with both chickens and turkeys, with the impact not just on bird loss but also the reduction in farming space and lack of compensation. “Then there’s the fact that farms that haven’t even had AI are getting tied up in restriction zones and you can’t use them either,” he adds.
That picture is being replicated right across the industry. Turkey farmer Paul Kelly says his business has lost three farms this season, compared to none last, which adds up to £2.9m in lost sales. “This year is very, very hard to say the least and will take some recovering from,” he says. “The problem is I would like to say it cannot get any worse, but of course it can. The big worry is that we have all our breeding stock for 2023 placed on farms at the moment. I am holding my breath with worry over whether they become infected, and secondly will there be any customers to buy the poults to grow Christmas turkeys next year? Why would they take the risk?”
AI may not have registered too deeply in the public consciousness yet, but if it leads to a shortage of turkeys at Christmas then it certainly will. Kelly says that 30% of free-range supply is lost, as well as up to 70% of British geese, meaning retailers will inevitably run short. “There’s no doubt about it,” adds Gorton. “We are significant suppliers into the Christmas market and we will be short of both chicken and turkeys, so there will definitely be shortages.”
Turkeys are particularly susceptible to AI, with the disease spreading rapidly through flocks, a situation that is proving devastating for turkey farmers as they approach their most crucial trading period. In an effort to protect the essential Christmas sales market, farmers breeding turkeys, geese or ducks for meat have been given the option to slaughter their flocks early and to freeze the products, which can then be defrosted and sold to consumers between 28 November and 31 December.
Keeping AI at bay
The drum of “biosecurity, biosecurity, biosecurity” has been banged repeatedly, and farmers are continually reminded to analyse their response in microscopic detail. The UK’s chief veterinary officer, Professor Christine Middlemiss, stated at the recent EPIC conference that while housing birds doubles protection against AI, good biosecurity increases protection by as much as 44 times, and emphasised that while perimeter measures have generally been good, the risk is particularly high around each shed. Common issues include the absence of a lobby, overalls and boots not being changed between sheds, and inadequate bedding management. Companies should also appoint a board level executive in charge of biosecurity to ensure a consistent response across the business, she said.
Describing the current situation as “unprecedented and unheard of”, a spokesperson for Livetec Systems advised farmers to make sure they have structured processes in place to manage their control points. “You have to do everything that you can to keep anything that can carry disease, including vehicles, people, wild birds and pests, away from your sheds, and you must keep everything as clean as possible, including the things you use to clean,” she said. “An additional measure could also include improving accessibility for seasonal workers, and those who have access to your farm, by removing language barriers and ensuring your literature is adapted for those individuals so that you can clearly communicate your measures.”
The sector is more prepared than ever before, with industry groups and assurance schemes keeping members updated on the latest situation and advice, and technology is increasingly available to help. The Livetec spokeswoman says data on-farm can help businesses make informed decision and show due diligence in the event of an outbreak, while sensors, CCTV and water consumption and temperature monitoring tools can all help spot problems earlier.
Levying support
While most of the focus is on how the government can support the industry through the crisis, some people believe the industry should take its fate into its own hands and bolster its own defences against business failures. At the recent EPIC conference, NFU deputy president Tom Bradshaw floated the idea that some form of levy could offer a solution, making comparisons to a similar scheme in Germany. “We need to have a conversation at a senior level about whether there is the appetite for that.”
The proposal was warmly received by both Kelly and Gorton, though with the caveat that it could prove difficult to implement. “It’s a fantastic idea and theoretically possible, but a really hard one to pull together with so many different sectors within the industry and with so many different levels of biosecurity,” Kelly observes. Gorton adds that the priority is that the government supports the sector, but that beyond that it would make sense that the industry takes matters into its own hands.
“We are an unsubsidised industry and we are very proud of that fact,” he says. “I think an industry levy would be a very good idea and given the sheer volume of poultry that there is in the UK, I don’t think it would need to be very much and probably wouldn’t take long to build up a big war chest. I think it’s great that Tom is pushing this – the NFU is probably well placed to instigate something like this because it would need a lot of administration, but there are huge costs and there will be farmers that won’t come back from this unfortunately. We’ve got to look after our industry. We are world leading and I think it’s a good idea.”
As the industry waits for a vaccine, the clarion call from farmers is for a compensation scheme that is “fit for purpose and makes sense”, as Kelly puts it. It is thought that a vaccination programme is at least a couple of years away, and even then APHA’s Brown stressed that it’s not a silver bullet but will still have to be used in conjunction with other measures. For the egg sector, the message is that the 16-week period that free-range producers can house birds without losing their free-range status be extended. Supermarkets must play their part in keeping the industry financially viable too.
In short, it’s a case of tackling the problem from every angle; hunkering down until the industry has the proper weapons in its arsenal to fight back.
Insurance block adds to farmers’ woes
Farmers have raised concerns that insurers have begun closing their doors to poultry producers, given the increasing number of AI-related claims.
An NFU Mutual spokesperson told Poultry Business that farmers are still covered by its existing policies, but added that avian flu cover is not currently open to new customers. “We understand these outbreaks have been devastating for the industry and we are pleased that our Avian influenza Insurance Policy has been able to financially help those that benefited from it when affected by an outbreak on their site,” she said. “We have been working with our insurance partners against a rapidly changing picture to provide a sustainable long-term insurance solution to offer financial protection against this disease for existing customers who meet our partners’ risk criteria. Due to the current situation, AI cover through our insurance partner is not open for new customers.”
The spokesperson added that farmers should ensure they are operating to the highest standards of biosecurity and complying with Defra regulations, but stressed that NFU Mutual “will continue to monitor the situation and remain committed to supporting our customers and providing them with the best outcomes available.”
Mark Gorton, managing director at Traditional Norfolk Poultry, says the situation highlights the need for proper government support. “If the compensation from the government were right you’d argue there would be no need for insurance,” he points out. “If the government pay us properly for the birds that we lose, and also give us the help we are asking for in the cleanup, the disinfection and cleandown, then there needn’t be insurance. At the end of the day we are complying with our legal obligations set by the government and we should be compensated for that.”